Some minor changes in our short term forecast this morning. Yesterday, as expected, the heaviest rains were in west and north west Indiana, but a large chunk of the state was able to see moisture. The center of old Alberto’s circulation tracked through west central and north east Indiana, with impressive rain bands along the way. Today, moisture looks far less impressive, and we are actually lowering our forecast for rain. We won’t take it completely out of the forecast, but coverage will likely be under 40% and amounts will be a few hundredths to a tenth or so, that’s it. One can make the argument that the better chances of showers today will be south, but we even think that is overstating things a bit much. Tomorrow, the bullseye is on Ohio, but we still see potential for another half an inch or less over southern Indiana, and clouds with minor scattered shower action up north. We really were looking for Friday to start to dry down, but it just is not likely to happen at this point…there is too much residual moisture. Saturday should be dry statewide. The map at right shows total a snapshot of the rain set up early Friday morning.
Our next front is on track to move through overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning. There will be some moisture with this front, bringing a few hundredths to .4” to about 60% of the state. We will skew that north. And, the moisture will be done, off to the east into Ohio by midday, or perhaps sooner. So, we should be dry for the balance of Sunday afternoon.
We are dry for, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Temps will be normal to above normal and we should see good sunshine, drying and field work conditions. The potential for moisture from a front later next week is not as high this morning. The front will be there but will likely have little to no moisture to work with, so at this point, we are pulling back on precipitation for Thursday and Friday but think we could see some rain next Saturday.
No change for the 11-16 day extended period. Our next front likely hits toward the early to middle part of the extended window, around the 10th (late) through Monday the 11th. Rain totals are not over the top, but we can see .25”-.6” over about 70% of the state. Then we go back to strong high pressure dominating to finish the period for the 12th and 13th.