Clouds dominate through the rest of the week now, and we are going to have to deal with a bit of minor precipitation as well. A frontal complex is pushing towards us, and we are expecting south winds to develop today. That will warm the region, and the trough passage will trigger the precipitation. Light snow can be seen this morning over northern Indiana, and then light rain this afternoon develops in southern Indiana. That afternoon precipitation continues overnight and spreads back north through the first part of Friday. Moisture totals will be from a few hundredths to .2” over about 60% of the state from this morning through tomorrow morning. The upper end of that moisture range will be kept to near the Ohio River. We should be dry in all areas Friday afternoon, and won’t rule out some sunshine.
Big rains arrive Saturday and sweep across the entire state Saturday night. Strong gusty winds will accompany the rain, and there can be some thunderstorms, particularly in central and southern Indiana. Rain totals will be from half to 1.5” over 100% of the state. The storm circulation continues to look as strong as earlier this week, which means we still expect a big dry slot to rotate in for Sunday. Temperatures will be well above normal for the weekend, including that dry period Sunday. The map above is an updated look at precipitation through the end of Sunday night (keep in mind the rains really are done before midnight Saturday).
Cold air finally blasts into the state overnight Sunday night through Monday, as we get the backside circulation coming in from the north and west. This will trigger light snow for Monday and Tuesday, with minor accumulations, mostly over the northern part of the state. Models are a little conflicted on the snow totals, but at this point we are thinking mostly minor (a coating to an inch or two) with the best chances coming in lake enhanced areas. Mixed clouds and sun will accompany the cold air over the rest of the state. WE stay dry and cold for Wednesday and Thursday, with better sunshine potential.
Light snow returns Friday afternoon of next week, and then continues through Saturday. We are starting to see signs that this wave could be a bit more of a problem this morning. There is a decent chance for some significant snow accumulation next Saturday out of this, and we will be watching it. Moisture available to the system will be from .25”-.75” liquid equivalent, and it hits about 80% of the state. We go back dry again for Sunday through Tuesday of the week after next.
The rest of the extended period has a significant warm up. We see above normal temps move in quickly from Tuesday night through Thursday (11th through the 13th). In this time, we see rain develop for Thursday the 13th, and they can be from .25”-.5” over 80% of the state. Then cold air blasts back in for Thursday night through Friday the 14th, and that chances rain back to snow, with the potential for accumulations.