Warm air is rushing in across Indiana today. That warm air moving over the cold surface is triggering a lot of clouds and some dense fog this morning. In addition to the fog, some light snow can pop up over the far northern part of the state early this morning. Fog may give way to some spits, sprinkles or flurries in southern Indiana. We should be dry from noon forward, with south winds continuing all day long.
No change in our Saturday forecast. Rains sweep across the entire state on into the evening. Strong gusty winds will accompany the rain, and we still think there is decent potential for thunderstorms. Rain totals will be from half to 1.5” over 100% of the state. We are tweaking Sunday’s action a bit this morning. We still expect a nice dry slow to work into the state, but it may not be able to encompass all areas. We will keep areas from I-70 south dry on Sunday but will allow for some additional scattered showers in our forecast for areas north of I-70. These showers will be worth a few hundredths to .15” with about 60% coverage. Much colder air starts to blast into the state overnight Sunday night into Monday, and that will allow any lingering rain to end as some light snow, again mainly in the northern part of the state. The map above shows potential precipitation totals through Sunday night.
Lake effect snows can develop Monday and Tuesday in northern Indiana in areas close to Lake Michigan. Accumulations are possible in the most typical lake effect snow areas. The rest of the state will be partly sunny, but cold. For Wednesday and Thursday, the entire state will be cloudy to partly sunny but still cold with below normal temps.
Light precipitation returns Friday next week as we look for scattered light rain or light snow showers (snow to the north, better chances of light rain in the south. Then we get into a period that has some diverging forecast potential. One model brings significant rain changing to snow overnight Friday night through Saturday, another model says basically a little rain and that is it. We have been talking for some snow potential on Saturday out of this wave, and we are going to run with that forecast through this weekend and take another look on Monday. Right now, we will keep the potential for .25”-.75” of combined liquid equivalent moisture but may have to amend and restructure the forecast next Monday. We go back dry again for Sunday with bitter cold air potential. We are seeing signs of some single digit to near zero temps near sunrise Monday morning. We stay cold through Monday.
From Tuesday of the week after next forward, we have a significant warm up coming. We will be above normal for temps Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. This warm air will bring rain from Thursday night the 14th into Friday the 14th. Then we have cold air returning quickly, with a chance of that rain moving back to snow before ending Saturday morning (15th). There can be some snow accumulations, and ahead of that, rain totals will be from .25”-.5”.