No changes this morning. Sunny, dry and warm through the weekend into early next week. We continue to keep the state precipitation free all the way through next Wednesday morning. We see excellent dry down potential with low relative humidity values and maximum evaporation rates.
Florence has been slowly moving over the past few hours, working into North and South Carolina. She likely drifts a bit farther south before heading west and then eventually curving north. We are keeping a chance of scattered showers in over southern and eastern Ohio next Tuesday and early Wednesday but see only a few offshoot clouds in the south and southeast Indiana. Florence does not look like she has enough power to bust through the ridge that is holding here through the weekend. The map at right shows precipitation potential through next Wednesday morning – basically nothing!
We are keeping an arrival time for our next front of later next Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Rain potential is minor, a few hundredths to .3”, but we are pulling coverage back even farther, to now no more than 30% of the state. We are back to dry weather for Thursday and Friday.
A stronger, more organized frontal boundary moves in for overnight next Friday night into early Saturday. Rain totals can be up to .75” but will only be that high where there are thunderstorms. AT this point, we think the best threat of that will be in NW Indiana. The rest of the state just sees scattered showers, and the moisture falls apart Saturday morning as the front moves south and east. Coverage will be at 60% or less. We have another front around the 25th as we kick off the extended forecast window. That front looks very similar to next Friday night and Saturday. However, the bigger story likely is the cooler, drier Canadian high pressure that comes in behind those fronts. We can see this airmass pooling over the prairies, just waiting for the invite to move south and east…those two fronts combined may do just that.
Temps will be easily well above normal through the weekend and the first half of next week. The second half we have temps back closer to normal, and then for the extended period, we expect a move to normal and below normal levels, just in time to flip the calendar to October.