Home Indiana Agriculture News Seed Consultants 3/26/2013 Market Closing Comment with Gary Wilhelmi

Seed Consultants 3/26/2013 Market Closing Comment with Gary Wilhelmi

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Financial
New all time high on the Dow at 14,559 up 112 points, but the S&P again came up short at 1563.77 versus the elusive high at 1565.15
Volume has been consistently light
Domestic economic reports were mixed with raw durable data positive but you have to look deeper as there are different ways of measuring the figures.
I was taught to not rely on the durables
Housing prices up but sales down, this makes economic sense
Consumer confidence was negative
Europe remains befuddled
WTI crude up $1.35
Dollar 5 higher at 8287
Gold unusually relaxed off $5
The euro has support at 1.2827

Livestock
Cattle settled down $ .42 on the June
Select boxed beef came in $2.04 lower
The bottom dwelling hogs rallied about $1 on short covering
We are in short squeeze territory in both meats

Grain and soybeans
May corn down 4 and May wheat up the same with May beans 10 better
Reports Thursday at 11 AM CDT
Plantings 97 m acres of corn and 78 m beans with wheat at 56 m
Stocks 5 b corn and 935 b beans
Quarterly stocks can always ne a wild card as adjustments from past errors can appear
No matter what the acres it is the weather, yet to be determined that calls the tune
Early plantings southern states is ahead of schedule but that does not mean much
Watch Iowa and Nebraska for lingering dryness
Strong dollar curbs export sales
Dollar looks technically vulnerable to correction

11:01 update

S&P 1560 is so close and thus far, so far from its all time 1565 high
Would a new high close be invigorating or exhausting, that is the question?
Dow is about 20 points below its high at 14,563
European ties are being stressed by the Cypriot example

10:14 update

Cash cattle call steady
Boxed beef soft
Cash hogs weak, but pork higher
Pork packers are well covered for short week demand
Gulf beans 2-3 lower as demand has eased
No 100,000 tons plus export sales

Market Opening

Financial
Durable goods up 5.7 % versus 3.8 % expected driven by transportation equipment demand
Housing prices and consumer confidence also today at 9 AM CDT
Large Cypriot bank depositors could lose 40% of funds
Fears in Europe that such may become a trend as there are many nonfunctioning banks
WTI up $ .73 at $95.51
DAX and FTSE up .1 %
Gold $1598 off $ 8
Dollar unchanged at 82.87
Dow up 58
S&P 7 higher at 1558
Livestock
Show lists smaller or 25,000 less than a year ago
Cash $128 a
Boxed beef down $ .85 choice and $2.07 select
Easter is not a big beef holiday
Beef in cold storage higher with numbers down 12 %
Slaughter 106,000 cattle and 427,000 hogs both lower
Pork cutout on 18 loads up $3.31 on carcass, down $ .58 loins and steady hams

Grain and soybeans
Only slight over night changes
Reports Thursday at 11 AM CDT
Plantings 97.2 m corn, 78.4 m beans and 56.4 m wheat
Stocks 5 b corn, 935 m beans and 1.117 b wheat
Snow in central and south melts quickly and runs off as ground is still frozen
China buys small amount of new crop and is likely done with current supplies
4-7 trading hours change to night close at 7:45 AM with break until 8:30 when day session opens and trades to 1:15 PM
Spring weather is next key and that’s is always a mystery
Dollar holds near high restricting export demand