Seed Consultants Planting Forecast April 15, 2017

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A cold front will moves through on Easter Sunday, and we see an active period continuing through the coming week to 2 week period. After this Sunday’s event, high pressure settles in for about 24 to 36hours, and then we have our next system arriving this coming Wednesday and Thursday. This event starts slowly with scattered precipitation Wednesday, but then triggers moderate to heavy rains and strong thunderstorms overnight Wednesday night and Thursday. We like rain totals of .25”-1.5” with 80% coverage for the 2-day period. We think the heaviest rains hit central Indiana, mostly due to the better chance of thunderstorms (and even severe weather in that area) across the region. The northern third of the state may stay the lower half to third of the range, under half an inch.

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Friday is an interesting day in the wake of the system. We think there can be some lingering action through Friday off an on, but even if we do go fully dry, as some models are trying to suggest, the rains from the previous 2 days likely prevent any field work. By the time we get to next weekend, we see scattered showers working in for Saturday, later in the day, and then really strengthening for Sunday. We expect rain totals alone for that period around .25”-1”, with coverage at 75% of the state. The map above shows potential rain totals through the noon hour on April 23.

Extended Period

In the 11-16 day forecast window, another system is in for the 27th-28th, sweeping out of the plains and across the entire Corn Belt. We are keeping the door open for half to 1.5” rain potential for that time frame, and will look for a minor high to come in immediately behind the frontal passage.

Weeks 3 & 4:

Farther out, for planting considerations, we look for weeks 3 and 4 to calm down just a bit with the active precipitation pattern. For week three, we see near normal precipitation…which means there is likely at least one front that sweeps through, but it will not be excessively moisture laden. Temps may be cooler to start, with a nice push of below normal temps in for the 30th through the 1st, but then we look to warm for the rest of the period, being back above normal for the 5th. Temps in that period can likely average at least 3 degrees below normal for highs and lows, and there may be some colder air embedded in there, before the moderation takes place. For week number 4, we continue to move drier, with normal to below normal precipitation, and temps moving back to near normal levels. For May 6ththrough the 12th…that would mean highs in the upper 60s to low 70s…so all is good there. Overall, what this means is, we should see concern about planting delays go away as the calendar flips to May from April. And…we can still dodge showers in spots here the next few weeks if you are lucky or have the right ground. The corresponding maps show a generalized look at temps and precipitation as they relate to normal for weeks 3 and 4
Week 3

Week 4

Soil temps likely continue to climb statewide through the coming 10 days….but are already well above needed thresholds for planting. Even if we do get a few cooler days at the turn of the month…this will not be enough to create cause of concern.

 

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