The USDA reported larger than expected inventories of corn, soybeans, and wheat in its September 1st Stocks Report, which analysts call bearish for the markets. The corn supplies came in at 2.14 billion bushels, which is 138 million more than the last estimate of old-crop carryout. USDA says feed usage was likely smaller than expected, reducing the number of bushels that made their way out of storage and off the farm. September 1st soybean inventory is estimated at 438 million bushels, 43 million bushels higher than the previous estimate.
In coming up with the number, USDA says the 2017 soybean crop was 19 million bushels larger than expected, upping last year’s yield to 49.3 bushels per acre nationwide. USDA raised its all-wheat production estimate by seven million bushels to 1.88 billion. September 1st wheat stocks came in at 2.37 billion bushels, more than pre-report estimates. The higher number indicated demand likely down eight percent from last year. Part of the reason may be slower than expected exports during the marketing year.
Indiana corn stocks totaled 126.1 million bushels, 5 percent below a year earlier, according to Greg Matli, State Statistician, USDA, NASS, Indiana Field Office. About 17 percent of the corn was stored on farms. The fourth quarter disappearance was 188.9 million bushels, compared with 167.3 million bushels a year earlier. Soybean stocks on September 1, 2018, were 22.0 million bushels. That was 4 percent higher than stocks a year earlier. The fourth quarter indicated disappearance was 52.9 million bushels, compared with 57.0 million bushels during the same period a year ago. Farm stocks of soybeans were 3.6 million bushels. Wheat stocks on September 1, 2018, were 41.0 million bushels, 6 percent below a year ago. Ninety-seven percent of all wheat stocks were in commercial storage. First quarter indicated disappearance was 4.1 million bushels, approximately 9 percent of supply.
Old crop corn stocks in all positions on September 1, 2018, totaled 2.14 billion bushels, down 7 percent from September 1, 2017. Of the total stocks, 620 million billion bushels were stored on farms, down 21 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, 1.52 billion bushels, were up 1 percent from a year ago. The June – August 2018 indicated disappearance was 3.16 billion bushels, compared with 2.94 billion bushels during the same period last year. Old crop soybeans stored in all positions on September 1, 2018, totaled 438 million bushels, up 45 percent from September 1, 2017. Soybean stocks stored on farms were estimated at 101 million bushels, up 15 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, 337 million bushels, were up 58 percent from last September. Indicated disappearance for the June – August 2018 quarter totaled 781 million bushels, up 18 percent from the same period a year earlier. All wheat stored in all positions on September 1, 2018, totaled 2.38 billion bushels, up 5 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks were estimated at 631 million bushels, up 28 percent from last September. Off-farm stocks, 1.75 billion bushels, were down 1 percent from a year ago. The June – August 2018 indicated disappearance was 605 million bushels, down 8 percent from the same period a year earlier.
Sources: NAFB News Service & USDA NASS Great Lakes Region