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Sunday Outlook

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Weekend Developments

·         The weekend saw only scattered light storms in key production areas of Argentina and Brazil.

·         Excessively wet areas of Argentina should remain relatively dry the next 5 days before a wet pattern returns.

·         An active rain pattern is expected over northern areas of Brazil the next two weeks, although they saw a good weekend for fieldwork, allowing much harvest and corn planting to take place.

·         It was a relatively quiet weekend in the United States, with temperatures moderating from the west over much of the next 10 days before cooling again.

·         The Delta and much of the South will likely remain excessively wet, slowing spring planting and risking winter wheat.

·         Rains improve winter wheat prospects in much of China and the Former Soviet Union over the next 10 days to 2 weeks.

·         The dollar exploded more than 2,200 points higher over the past three trading days and is nearing the next area of resistance. It’s movement over the next week could have a significant influence on how grain and oilseed prices respond to Tuesday’s crop report.

·         USDA will release its March crop report Tuesday morning, updating its domestic and global supply and demand balance sheets. Trade expectations already built into the market ahead of the report are as follows:

U.S. Ending Stocks

2014-15

Wheat

Corn

Soybeans

billions of bushels

USDA March Report

Average Trade Estimate

0.701

1.826

0.376

Highest Trade Estimate

0.734

1.899

0.385

Lowest Trade Estimate

0.674

1.777

0.350

Previous USDA Estimate

0.692

1.827

0.385

Water Street Solutions

0.693

1.817

0.376

 

South American Production

Argentina

Brazil

Corn

Soybeans

Corn

Soybeans

MMT of Production

USDA Report

    Pre-Report Estimates

Average Trade Estimate

23.54

56.88

74.62

94.01

Highest Trade Estimate

29.30

60.20

76.50

95.00

Lowest Trade Estimate

21.50

55.00

72.40

92.50

Previous USDA Estimate

23.00

56.00

75.00

94.50

Water Street Solutions

25.00

57.00

73.00

94.00

Commodity Weather Group Weekend Summary

In the U.S., precipitation has been minimal in the past 2 days. Rains in eastern TX today move across the Delta early this week, with another rain event expanding across the Delta/eastern Midwest late in the week. There is the potential for more significant showers in the Delta in the 11 to 15 day. This is likely to keep wheat areas with localized excess wetness, but the break in the 6 to 10 day should keep damage limited.

Early corn planting in the Delta will be slowed, but warmer temperatures the next 2 weeks will improve germination prospects and spur winter wheat growth across the Plains, Midwest, and Delta. Plains wheat has a chance for needed showers in the 11 to 15 day, but confidence is currently low. Pacific Northwest wheat has better shower chances in the 6 to 15 day that should bring some much needed moisture to the crop, as spring growth begins to accelerate as well.

In South America, weekend showers in Brazil scattered across northern/eastern Parana, Sao Paulo, southern Minas Gerais, southwest/far northern Goias, western Bahia, and the Mato Grossos. Rains will be most active in northern Brazil over the next 2 weeks, benefiting safrinha corn/coffee/sugar growth but slowing any late safrinha seeding/soy harvest. However, recent strides in safrinha seeding have helped to reduce concerns to some extent.

A subtropical storm at mid-week may bring locally heavy rains to the port areas, but the system is projected to be too far offshore to be a significant threat. Argentina saw weekend showers limited to the far south, and significant rains hold off until Friday in most areas. This is giving a needed break for corn/soy areas of Cordoba/Santa Fe with excess moisture from recent rain (about 1/4 of the belt), but a more active pattern is anticipated in the 6 to 15 day again.

In addition to localized flooding risks, early corn harvest will remain slow, and filling soy may be prone to shattered pods. The GFS remains hotter/drier but continues to be notably warm-biased.

 

All opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Water Street Advisory. This data and these comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. There is significant risk of loss involved in commodity futures and options trading and may not be suitable for all investors.

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Arlan Suderman | Senior Market Analyst
WATER STREET ADVISORY® | www.waterstreet.org
(316) 729-4599 | asuderman@waterstreet.org

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is intended for informational purposes only and is the opinion of the writer and may change at any time. This information was compiled from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be and is not guaranteed. There is no warranty, expressed or implied, in regards to this information for any particular purpose. There is SIGNIFICANT RISK involved in trading futures and or options on futures and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should consider these RISKS and evaluate their suitability based on their financial conditions. No one should ever consider trading futures or options on futures with anything other than RISK CAPITAL. This information is provided freely and is NOT in the capacity of a trading advisor. NO LIABILITY on the part of the author exists for any trading loss you may incur in the use of this information. Information provided is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodity or security named herein.

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